Behind the Numbers: Week 9 Iowa at Minnesota

This photo from November 9 1963, is probably my favorite Floyd picture of all time. (Cedar Rapids Gazette)

This post is already going to be long enough, so I'll spare you the long introduction. All the introducing you need can be summed up right here: Iowa = this week, while Minnesota = this week. Got it? Good.

To the charts!

Iowa Offense vs Minnesota Defense

(What is this chart?)

Remember what happened against Indiana? Yeah. Expect more of that this weekend. Minnesota's opponents have allowed an opposing quarterback rating of 148.28, which is 16% below the national average. Vandenberg, meanwhile, after tearing the Indiana secondary a new one, now has a 156.74 quarterback rating. Sure, Vandenberg has benefited from a pretty easy schedule so far, but it's not like that's going to change this weekend… Advantage Iowa

Minnesota's run defense grades out just slightly worse than their passing defense, at 17% below average. They have given up 5.27 yards per carry (if you take away sacks), and have given up 14 rushing touchdowns on only 260 opponent attempts (also not including sacks). Coker had big games against Northwestern and Indiana, and looked pretty good against Penn State. He looks to have hit his stride, after starting slow this season. He's now up to 4.78 yards per carry this season, and has averaged 5.64 and 6.04 yards per carry in the last two games against really bad rush defenses. Guess what? Minnesota is a REALLY BAD run defense. Not quite as terrible as Indiana's was, but still pretty terrible. Expect 100 yards for Coker, and more carries for the back ups. Advantage Iowa

Do I really need to go into depth about scoring? Iowa is 24% above average at putting points on the board, Minnesota is 30% worse than average at keeping them off. Advantage Iowa

Minus Coker's fumbles early on in the season, this Iowa offense has been very good at holding onto the ball. All season long, the Gophers have been the most God awful team in the Big Ten (and in the FBS too!) at forcing turnovers. I mean, 68% below average? Really? Advantage Iowa

Matt Tobin has been about as useful as a turnstile in pass protection at times this season. After the Indiana game, Iowa's 6.31% sacks allowed per pass play is 11% worse than average. (Some of that is on Vandenberg's inability to pick up blitzes off the corner, though.) However, the interior of the offensive line should have no problems against this Gopher pass rush. Minnesota has logged a sack on 2.22% of their opponent's quarterback drop backs. Words have not been invented yet, to properly describe how truly, truly pathetic that stat is. The FBS average is 5.93%, which means their pass rush is 63% worse than the national average. Even Iowa's defense is averaging a sack on 5.04% of opponent quarterback dropbacks. The Gophers are a little more stout against the run, logging a tackle for loss on a run play on 10.94% of their opponent's carries (2% above average). Luckily for Iowa, their 5.35% run plays that have gone for loss is 47% better than the national average. I think they will be just fine. Advantage Iowa

Overall Advantage: Iowa Offense

Minnesota Offense vs Iowa Defense

It's kind of hard to figure out which side of the ball for Minnesota is more inept. I lean toward the defense, but the offense has done their best to make this a compelling debate this season. Part of the problem is that they have no passing game, whatsoever. MarQueis Gray is their guy at quarterback, but he is a much better runner than he is a passer. So when he does pass the ball, the results are not exactly sterling. He's completed 48.7% of his passes on 6.5 yards per attempt, and thrown 3 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. That's good for a quarterback rating of 104.92. True freshman quarterback, Max Shortell, has seen action this year too, but has looked like a true freshman when he has played (102.93 quarterback rating). He may or may not get some snaps against Iowa. Iowa's pass defense continues to be worrisome. Indiana's freshman quarterback put up a 149.37 quarterback rating last week, and Iowa's opponent season total is now up to 136.62. That is 7% worse than the national average. Opponent's have also completed 66.5% of their passes and are averaging 7 yards per attempt against this Iowa defense. I know Minnesota's rating looks much worse, but after what I saw against Indiana, I don't think I can give Iowa the advantage, even against this lowly Minnesota passing offense. Advantage Push

MarQueis Gray is the Gopher's most consistent rushing threat. Even with sacks included, he's averaging 4.66 yards per carry. Duane Bennett and Donnell Kirkwood are the main running backs, but they are both averaging less than 4 yards per carry. When you factor in Minnesota's 8 rushing touchdowns on 240 non-sack carries, that comes out to a 16% below average offensive rushing rating. Iowa's defense has not been great this season, but the run defense has been pretty good. They are only allowing 3.80 yards per carry, and when you take away sacks, their 4.22 yards per carry allowed is 10% better than the national average of 4.69. The Hawkeyes have also only allowed a rushing touchdown on 2.81% of their carries (34% above average). With as bad as Minnesota's run game is, those numbers will probably go up after this game. Advantage Iowa

I think the Gophers may be allergic to the end zone. I mean, how else do you explain their lack of scoring ability? Their 0.26 offensive points per play is 33% below average, while their 15.71 offensive points per game is 42% below average. Those scoring numbers put Minnesota on par with teams like Akron, Idaho, Kentucky, and North Texas. Iowa's defense is slightly better than the national average in defensive points per game allowed, at 23.29 (4% better than average). Their real strength lies in the fact that they force their opponents to work for their points (bend don't break!), as their defensive points per play allowed of 0.30 is 14% better than the FBS average. The Hawkeyes may give up some points in this game, but Minnesota is going to have to work for them. Advantage Iowa

Iowa has not been particularly good at forcing turnovers since Big Ten play started. Their rating has now fallen all the way down to 21% below average in turnovers forced per play. Minnesota on the other hand, has only been 6% below average in turnovers per play. Though, they have had a fumbling problem in their three Big Ten games, losing five of them. However, the interceptions have stopped in Big Ten play. Though, I don't if that's because they aren't throwing very much anymore or what? But the fumbling is a little worrisome for them, and could possibly be something for Iowa to exploit. Advantage Push

The offensive line for the Golden Gopher's is better at run blocking than they are at pass blocking. However, that's not to say they are actually good at run blocking. They are allowing a tackle for loss on 10.63% of their run plays (5% below FBS average of 10.08%). That number, though, is much better than their sacks per quarterback dropback of 7.61% (34% worse than FBS average of 5.66%) Iowa's defensive front seven are not world beaters, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt against this offensive line. They were very good against Northwestern, and "meh" (in my opinion) against Indiana. I think Broderick Binns, Mike Daniels, and an improving Steve Bigach and Dominic Alvis can at least get some pressure on the quarterback. Advantage Iowa

Overall Advantage: Iowa Defense

Special Teams

Thanks to Mike Meyer, Iowa is second in the Big Ten in field goal percentage. He has made 12-14 this season (85.7%), has not missed within 40 yards, is 3-4 from 40-49 yards, and is 1-2 from beyond 50. His long this season was a 50 yarder, and he has had none of his kicks blocked.

Minnesota's kicker, Chris Hawthorne, isn't terrible, but he hasn't been nearly as reliable as Meyer this season. He's tied for 8th in the Big Ten in field goal percentage, making 6-9 (66.66%).
 He's 2-3 from 30-39, 1-2 from 40-49, and 0-1 from 50+. His long this season is 47, and has had one field goal blocked. Advantage Iowa

On kickoffs, Meyer has not been as effective. Iowa's average kickoff is eighth in the Big Ten, but is dragged down slightly by the 44 yarder that Mossbrucker kicked against Indiana. Though, if you take out Mossbrucker, and use Meyer's average of 63.30, it would be good for fifth in the conference. He has the capability of having a nice kick, but he's very inconsistent, and is last in the Big Ten in touchback percentage (by a long, long way) and is tied for first with the most kickoffs going out of bounds (3). Adding to Iowa's kickoff woes, is the fact that the coverage team has it's share of issues. While they've managed not to give up a kick return for a touchdown, they are seventh in the Big Ten, giving up 20.98 yards per return.

Minnesota does have a pretty good kick returner in Marcus Jones. He has 1 kick return for a touchdown this season, and is third in the Big Ten averaging 28.46 yards per return. Their other returner, Troy Stoudemire, isn't quite as good, and is the reason Minnesota's kick return average is sixth in the Big Ten. But don't let that fool you. Iowa is going to want to kick the ball away from Jones. Advantage Minnesota

The Gophers' kickoff man (also Hawthorne) is the main reason why Minnesota is fifth in the Big Ten, averaging 64.75 yards per attempt. He has had 5 of his kicks go for touchbacks (19.23%), but has also kicked 2 of them out of bounds. Couple Hawthorne with Minnesota's kick coverage, who has yet to allow a touchdown this year, and is allowing the second best yards per return in the Big Ten (19.60), and they actually have a pretty solid kickoff team.

Jordan Bernstine has yet to return a kick to the house, but I think a lot of Iowa fans think he will before the year ends. He is currently fifth in the Big Ten, averaging 25.88 yards per return. Indiana is only allowing about 20 yards per kick return this season, and Bernstine about broke one on them last weekend. I think this is a good match up. Advantage Push

Thanks to Eric Guthrie, Iowa is third in the Big Ten, averaging 43 yards per punt. Of his 23 punts, 9 have been placed inside the 20 (39.13%), 9 have been fair caught, 3 have gone for 50+ yards (13.04%), 1 has gone for a touchback (4.35%, Damn you, Ferentz), and 0 have been blocked. His long on the year is currently 59 yards. God bless you, Eric Guthrie.

As for Minnesota's punt return team, well… they're odd. I say that because they've forced 23 punts this season, and have only returned 3 of them. 1 of those punt returns resulted in a touchdown, but it was only a 30 yard return. How's that? Well, they blocked a punt and returned it 30 yards for a touchdown. Remember Paki O'Meara's stat line last year? The NCAA counts blocked punt's returned for a touchdown as punt return touchdowns. That means, Minnesota has really only returned 2 of the 22 returnable punts they've seen this season. And those two punts only resulted in 2 total yards. Considering Minnesota has only returned 9% of the punts kicked to them this year, and 78% of Guthrie's punts don't get returned. I feel comfortable in saying that Iowa's got this. Advantage Iowa

For our last special teams match up, our spotlight turns to Minnesota's punter, Dan Orseske. Minnesota is seventh in the Big Ten, as Orseske is averaging 40.18 yards per punt. On his 33 punts this season, 8 have landed inside the 20 (24.24%), 9 have been fair caught (27.28%), 5 have gone for 50+ yards (15.15%), 3 have gone for touchbacks (9.10%), and 0 have been blocked. His longest punt of the year went an impressive 64 yards. So he seems to have a great leg (5 punts over 50 yards), but also seems to be inconsistent (40 yard average). It's probably because he's only a sophomore. He could be pretty good in a few years.

As for Iowa's punt return team, they haven't done a whole lot. In fact, Iowa is eleventh in the Big Ten averaging 4.86 yards per punt return. They also haven't blocked a punt this year, either. There's not a whole lot to say here. I'll go with the sporadic punter with upside, please. Advantage Minnesota

Special Teams Advantage: Push

Tendencies

After playing Indiana, Iowa is now back to calling more run plays than pass plays for the season. Which means, Kirk Ferentz can now breath easy. They have still called about 1% less run plays this season than the national average, but baby steps, Kirk, baby steps. Minnesota, meanwhile, has run the ball about 5% more than the national average. Probably because they don't have anything resembling a passing game.

On defense, Iowa's opponents have run the ball against them about 2% more than the average team. Iowa's certainly made opposing quarterbacks look better than opposing running backs this season, but they have also faced quite a few run-first spread teams. So maybe that explains the opponent playcalling. Minnesota has been run on 3% more than average, and I would say a good chunk of that is because they've been beaten by an average score of 36-17 (48-16 in Big Ten play). Yeah. That probably explains it.

Inside their opponent's 20, Iowa and Minnesota tend to get very, very run heavy. Also, I've heard people talk up Iowa being very good in the red zone this season. And while it's nice to score 96% of the time in the red zone, that doesn't really tell the whole story. Touchdown percentage is very important, and when you look at that, Iowa's 62.96% touchdown percentage in the red zone doesn't look very good. In fact, it's seventh in the Big Ten. It's nice that they aren't missing field goals, but it would be nice if they were converting more of the 6 point plays. As for Minnesota, they have scored 80.95% of the time in the red zone, which is good for eighth in the Big Ten. As for touchdown percentage, they have crossed the goal line on 57.14% of their trips inside the red zone, which is good for tenth in the Big Ten.

Defensively, Iowa's opponents tend to pass a little more in the red zone, while Minnesota's opponents have largely been run-first inside the Gopher 20. The Hawkeyes are second in the Big Ten, allowing opponents to score on 70.97% of their trips inside the Iowa 20. They are also doing pretty good in the touchdown category too. The Hawkeyes' opponent red zone touchdown percentage of 54.84% is good for fourth in the Big Ten. Minnesota, on the other hand, hasn't been quite as good. Their 87.10% red zone scoring percentage is good enough for tenth in the Big Ten, while their 67.74% touchdown percentage is good enough for last in the Big Ten.

The run has been a lot more successful in the past couple weeks for Iowa, but the pass has continued to be just as successful, which explains why the Hawkeyes' offense is getting about 7% more yards than average from the passing game. Minnesota runs the ball about 5% more than average, and they are gaining about 7% more yards than average on the ground. That extra 2% is more evidence that their passing game isn't very good.

Defensively, Iowa has given up a pretty even distribution of yards, even though they've been run on about 2% more than average. Minnesota, on the other hand, has allowed 4% more of their yards on the ground.

Scoring-wise, Iowa's touchdowns have come through the air 10% more than average. While Minnesota has scored via the ground about 11% more than average. Nothing too surprising here.

On the other side of the ball, the Hawkeyes have allowed 10% more of their touchdowns through the air than the average FBS team. As for the Gophers, they have allowed exactly 14 rushing touchdowns and 14 passing touchdowns. You have got to hand it to them, though. It's very generous of them to be an equal opportunity touchdown giver-upper. (Giver-upper is actually a word! Who knew?)

Opposing Players to Watch

• QB #5 MarQueis Gray, 6'4" 240 lbs- Gray was originally the gem of Timmy Brewster's 2008 recruiting class. He was primarily a receiver (and a pretty good one, at that) before this season, but now he's playing the position he was recruited for. The passing aspect of quarterbacking, is definitely not his forte. He's completed 48.7% of his passes, thrown 3 touchdowns to 4 interceptions, and is averaging 6.5 yards per attempt. That stat line is good for a 104.92 quarterback rating. As for running the ball, he is a threat with his feet. He is averaging 4.66 yards per carry, but that includes sacks. I don't know how many of the 14 sacks are him or Shortell, so I don't know what his average running the ball is without taking the sacks out. However, I feel safe saying it would be something over 5 yards per carry. He's not a Kain Colter or Tre Roberson type of runner, either. He's a big athlete who can run, and absorb contact. Iowa better be practicing contain this week.
• WR #6 Da'Jon McKnight, 6'3" 211 lbs- Mcknight was a playmaker last season. If he would have been on a better team, he probably would have had more than just 48 catches and 750 yards (15.63 ypc). Though, he was still a touchdown machine last season, with 10. This is year he is quietly having a solid season. He's caught 27 balls (first on the team by A LOT) for 393 yards (14.56 ypc), but has only caught 1 touchdown. His yards per catch are down slightly, and he's not catching as many touchdowns this season, but I have a feeling that his numbers have something to do with a quarterback that is completing only 48% of his passes, more than it being something that he's doing wrong. He's proven in the past he's a playmaker when he gets the ball, so Iowa should be gameplanning to make sure they take him out of the game.
• FB/TE #85 Eric Lair, 6'3" 232 lbs- Lair is listed by the Gopher website as a tight end, but the depth chart I found, has him listed as starting fullback. So, ummm… yeah. He's versatile. He is on the smaller side for a tight end, more of an H-back kind of body. He's only got 9 catches on the season, but when Gray or Shortell are able to get him the ball, he's got some big play ability. Of his nine catches, five of them have gone for gains of 13, 19, 20, 21, and 43 yards. His average yards per catch on the year is 17. The only caveat, is that most of his big plays came outside of Big Ten Play (Though, he did have 2 catches for 30 yards against USC). He's only getting 1.3 catches per game, but he does a good job of making plays when does get the ball. He could possibly be trouble for a banged up linebacking core like Iowa has.
• WR #15 Marcus Jones, 5'8" 170 lbs- Jones is built in the mode of Penn State's Devon Smith (Though, Jones is about 1" taller and 15 lbs heavier). He is not a big guy, but he is a speedster. He's a true freshman, who did most of his damage receiving-wise in non-conference play, but is also a dangerous kick returner. He's currently third in the Big Ten, averaging 28.46 yards per kick return. He's also taken one to the house this season against Purdue. We've seen the inconsistencies of Iowa's kickoff team this season, and if they don't stay in their lanes this weekend, Jones has the capability to make them pay.
• MLB #51 Gary Tinsley, 6'1" 232 lbs- You know your defense is bad, when a safety instead of a linebacker is leading your team in tackles by 15. I repeat, by 15! I say that because Tinsley is Minnesota's best linebacker, but is second on the team with 23 tackles, while safety Kim Royston leads the team with 38. Tinsley does lead the team in tackles for loss, however. He has stuffed 3 opponent run plays in the backfield this season, while also racking up 1 sack (which is actually tied for first place on the team). I wouldn't say Tinsley is a real threat to slow Iowa's run game, but this defense is FOR THE LOVE OF GOD JUST BLOW IT UP ALREADY bad, and I wanted to mention at least one person on the defense in the Opposing Players to Watch section.
• Others to Watch- The entire defense. Just like Indiana, for comedic purposes only.

Beverage of Choice- BREW FREE! OR DIE IPA by 21st Amendment Brewing Co.

Why this beer, this week? I'll tell you why. FREEDOM! That's why. This beer was brewed with our liberty in mind. Most importantly, the freedom for us to be able to drink good beer.

You know who loves freedom? This motherfuckin' guy right here. That's who. Also, this quarterback, this bird, this other bird, this emancipationist, this country singer, and these founding fathers.

You know who doesn't love freedom?  These two wild and crazy guys, this extravagantly dressed tyrannical ruler*, this FIGHT! TRY! WIN! FIRED! coach, and this buck-toothed rodent.

And do you know what isn't free right now? This little guy.

So, what do you say the Hawkeyes set him free from this… whatever this is, and bring him home to Iowa City this weekend? Because, in the words of of Patrick Henry, "Bring home the bacon!" "Give me Liberty, or Give me Death!" And if Floyd has to spend one more day after Saturday in that godforsaken place they call Minnesota, then he might as well be dead.

FREE FLOYD GODDAMMIT

Ed. Note: Unfortunately, as far as I know, this beer isn't distributed in Iowa. I actually got mine through a friend. However, if you are making the journey to Kinnick North this Saturday, you should be able to find it pretty easily up there. It's definitely worth it. And it comes in a can, so it's good for tailgating!

*For those of you who aren't up to date on your history, that is King George III.

Prediction- Iowa 41, Minnesota 20

Like the Penn State, Northwestern, and Indiana games already proved, past results don't have much of an effect on present results. Iowa has owned Penn State, Northwestern has owned Iowa, and Indiana has been a fucking headache for the Hawkeyes in recent years, but that didn't matter this year. Iowa sleepwalked into TCF Bank Stadium last year, and got their asses handed to them (yes, they lost by 3, but they were badly outplayed). These are different teams this year, however, and Iowa is the far superior team (again). Iowa will be able run the ball with ease, and then James Vandenberg will make it rain touchdowns off of play action to Marvin McNutt all damn day long. The defense will probably give us a few headaches, but they won't give up many big plays. They will force the Gophers to put together long drives, and they will give up some points, but they will also force some mistakes. Because, hey, it's Minnesota. Mistakes are their forte.

So, there we go. Iowa rolls again this week, brings the pig back to Iowa City, and finds themselves 6-2 going into a very difficult November schedule. But we'll worry about that daunting November schedule next week. For now, FREE FLOYD GODDAMMIT!

All stats in this piece came from College Football Statistics, the NCAA's official website, and my own personal spreadsheet.