Behind the Numbers: Week 11 Iowa vs Michigan State

I'm really going to miss watching this man run down the Kinnick sidelines next fall. (Charlie Neibergall/AP)

With Iowa holding on to a close win against the Wolverines last weekend, that means there is one ranked Michigan team down, and one more ranked Michigan team left to go. This week Sparty comes to town, and, of course, they want revenge. But, guess what? They also wanted revenge for this last season too. And what happened? Why, this, of course. As you can probably already tell, I don't put a lot of stock in the whole "Oh, they are out for revenge. I think they are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder" thing. Penn State wanted revenge for 2008 and 2009, and how did those attempts at revenge work out? If you want to play the revenge card, I could play the Senior Day card for the Hawkeyes. This game is important for both teams because it has Legends division title implications. If you don't think both teams want this game badly, you're out of your damn mind.

Anyway, this game is a battle between the #26 team (in my rankings) in Michigan State and the #44 team in Iowa. Like always, just in case you don't have much faith in my rankings, I bring other opinions, and Football Outsiders' F/+ rankings are much higher on both teams than my numbers are. According to F/+ Michigan State is the #16 team in the nation, while Iowa is the #36 team in the nation. (FEI has Iowa at #31 which surprises me, but S&P+ has Iowa at #43, which balances out their F/+ ranking to #36) Either way, the numbers say that Michigan State is the better team. But, hey. The numbers also liked Michigan last week too. Anything is possible. Especially, at home in the Big Ten this season.

Anyway, enough blabbering about numbers, to the charts! Wait a minute…

Iowa Offense (#33) vs Michigan State Defense (#12)

(What is this chart?)

Michigan State's pass defense is hard to read. They are allowing a 102.85 opponent passer rating this season, which is 20% better than the average FBS team. However, they haven't faced a whole lot of good passing teams this season. About the only good passing team they held somewhat in check, was Notre Dame, who they held to a 126.24 quarterback rating. Wisconsin put up a 168.25, while MarQueis Gray, of all people, just put up a 146.12 against them this past Saturday. Otherwise, they've shut down Youngstown State, Florida Atlantic, Central Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan and Nebraska through the air. How many of those teams are good at passing the ball? However, it's not like Iowa is real battle tested when it comes to playing against really good passing defenses, either. Penn State is the only legitimate defense they've really faced all year, and Vandenberg put up a quarterback rating of 80. Michigan's defense is pretty good, and Vandenberg performed much better. However, both teams seem untested, and therefore, I'm calling this equal. Advantage Push

In rushing defense, Michigan State is battle tested. They have shut down every team on the ground, except for Wisconsin. They are allowing 3.83 sack-adjusted yards per carry this season, which is 45% above the FBS average. Their strength on defense starts up front, so it's not really surprising that they have been so good against the run. Iowa, on the other hand, continues to get better and better at running the ball every week. Coker has found himself, and Brad Rogers is banging heads with linebackers and opening up holes for the big, bruising back. I've seen enough from Coker, to think that he can go up against this defense, and be successful. He probably won't average over 5 yards per carry, but I think he can average in the 4.5 range, and break off a couple good runs. Michigan State's defense is very stout against the run, but Iowa has found it's ground game recently. Advantage Push

Michigan State's defense is allowing 15.33 defensive points per game this season, which is 38% better than average. They are also doing a good job of not giving up big plays, as their 0.25 defensive points per play allowed, is 29% better than average. As for Iowa, they are averaging 30.11 offensive points per game (11% above average), but have had a knack for the big play this season (McNutt!), averaging 0.47 offensive points per play. (22% above average) Though, Iowa does have times where they look like a legit big play offense, they also have times where they look like they have no idea what the hell they are doing. For that reason, I'm going with Sparty on this one. Advantage Michigan State

When it comes to turnovers, Michigan State has forced 13 interceptions this season. That is basically what has driven their 14% above average turnovers forced per play rate. However, how much of that has been from spread quarterbacks throwing up lame ducks? Iowa, meanwhile, has been very good at protecting the ball, and did so against a Michigan team that has been incredibly lucky at forcing fumbles this season. After the Michigan game, Iowa now sits at 37% above average in turnovers per play. I don't see an advantage here. Well, unless Iowa can't pick up the blitz… Advantage Push (But blitz pick up worries me)

This is probably the most important match up on this side of the ball; the trenches. Michigan State's defensive line has lived in their opponent's backfield this season. They are averaging a sack on 10.12% of their opponent's passing plays (71% above average!) and are stopping an opposing running back in the backfield on 11.64% of their run plays. (11% above average) It's no secret that Iowa has had some pass protection issues at times this season. The Hawkeyes are now giving up a sack on 6.99% of their passing plays (22% worse than average), while Coker and the few other guys who have gotten carries, have only been stopped for negative yardage on 5.31% of their runs. (46% better than average) I would call this a push, because Iowa is a good run blocking team, but Jerel Worthy is a human wall, and after seeing what Mike Martin did to the interior of Iowa's offensive line this past weekend, I expect to see Worthy in the backfield more than I am going to like. Advantage Michigan State

Overall Advantage: Michigan State Defense

Michigan State Offense (#64) vs Iowa Defense (#67)

Michigan State's offense has had some problems this year. However, it's the passing game that has been pretty decent. (Except for the massacre in Lincoln) Kirk Cousins is not a great Big Ten quarterback, but he gets the job done. He's like those game managing quarterbacks Wisconsin used to run out onto the field before they signed Russell Wilson to a one year free agent deal. The only thing wrong with that comparison, is that Wisconsin had a run game during those years. But, we'll get to Michigan State's "run game" in the next paragraph. Iowa is coming off a game in which they held their opponent below a 115 quarterback rating for the first time since Tennessee Tech. However, I've already discussed why I think that may have had a lot to do with the bad gameplan the Michigan coaching employed on Saturday. I think Cousins is accurate enough that he can hit those short to intermediate passes that Michigan couldn't, and that could help them move the ball down the field a bit. Advantage Michigan State

The run game has really held this offense back this year. And to be sure, it's not the running backs. Well, it's not Le'Veon Bell's fault, anyway. Bell is averaging 5.21 yards per carry this year. Instead, it's been Michigan State's offensive line that has been a real weak point for this team. When the ground game is averaging 4.22 sack-adjusted yards per carry (17% below average), while having 11.71% of their running plays going for loss (18% worse than average), there is clearly a problem on the offensive line. Iowa, meanwhile, has been pretty good against the run this year (Outside of Happy Valley, anyway), as they are giving up 4.27 sack-adjusted yards per carry (10% above average) this season. Michigan State hasn't been able to get the run game going very well this year, and I don't see them doing it in this game, either. Advantage Iowa

When an offense has a mediocre passing game and a below average rushing game, it isn't usually going to lead to a whole lot of points. And, guess what? Michigan State's offense is only putting up 23.44 offensive points per game (13% below average), and they aren't getting a whole lot of big plays, either. (0.35 offensive points per play, 10% below average) This match up favors Iowa, who has been pretty good at keeping opponents out of the end zone this year. Their 22.33 defensive points per game allowed is 10% better than average, while their 0.30 points per play allowed is 16% better than average. As we saw against Michigan, a one dimensional offense can have a hard time putting up points against this Iowa defense. Advantage Iowa

One thing that hasn't hurt Michigan State's offense this season is turnovers. Kirk Cousins has only thrown 5 picks on the year, and, as a whole, Michigan State is giving up the ball 20% less than the average FBS team. That's not good news for an Iowa team that is forcing turnovers at a 19% below average clip this season. Sure, they forced two turnovers against Michigan, but Michigan is 19% below average in turnovers per play this year. (Thanks, Denard!) Advantage Michigan State

Just like when Iowa has the ball, the battle in the trenches may also be the most important match up when Michigan State has the ball. Like I said above, Michigan State has allowed opposing team's to take down their running backs in the backfield at an 18% worse than average clip. Though, they have been good at keeping Kirk Cousins upright, giving up a sack on 4.97% of their pass plays. (13% better than average) Iowa, on the other hand, Iowa has been 20% below average at getting to the quarterback, and 34% worse than average at bringing the opposing running back down for negative yards. As you can tell by Iowa's sack-adjusted yards per carry allowed, they've been pretty good against the run, even though they haven't gotten a lot of negative stops. I think Iowa will have the upper hand when Michigan State puts their heads down and tries to run block. However, when Michigan State puts their heads up and tries to pass block, I think they have the advantage, as Iowa just can't generate a pass rush this year. I mean, they blitzed more against Michigan, and it worked. But that was only one game, and I'm going to need a bigger sample to believe they can keep getting to the quarterback. Advantage Push

Overall Advantage: Push

Special Teams

After missing a chip shot against Minnesota, Mike Meyer came back and nailed a 42 yard field goal into the wind against Michigan. Because, why the hell not? Anyway, the recently named Lou Groza Award semifinalist, is now sixth in the conference in field goal percentage (out of all kicker's who have played in 75% of their team's games and averaged 1 field goal attempt per game), making 76.5% of his kicks. He's only missed one kick inside of 40 yards, while going 4-6 from 40-49 yards, and 1-2 from beyond 50. His long is from 50 yards this season, and he has yet to have one blocked.

Michigan State's kicker, Dan Conroy, is seventh in the conference with a field goal percentage of 66.7%. Conroy is 3-5 from inside 40 yards, 3-3 from 40-49 yards, and 2-4 from 50+ yards. His long on the season is also 50 yards, and he also is yet to have a kick blocked. Conroy seems to have a good leg (he's made two 50 yard field goals), but Meyer seems to be a little more tested right now. Advantage Iowa

Kicking against the wind, and a miserable attempt at a squib kick against Michigan, has now put Iowa in the basement of the Big Ten when it comes to kickoff averages. However, take away Mossbrucker, and Mike Meyer is seventh in the Big Ten averaging 63.27 yards per kickoff. But he is, by far, the worst kicker in the Big Ten at getting touchbacks (1.92%), and has kicked 3 out of bounds this season. As for Iowa's kick coverage team, Iowa is now fourth in the Big Ten, giving up 20.64 yards per return (Improvement!), and allowing no touchdowns this season.

Michigan State has a pretty good kick returner in Nick Hill. He has yet to take a kickoff back to the house, but he is averaging 24.24 yards per kick return. That is good for fifth in the Big Ten, and really, his numbers make him look like a Jordan Bernstine clone. And you know how optimistic we have all been about Bernstine. Iowa's kick coverage has been better recently, but the short kick offs are a bit of a problem. I think I have to go with Michigan State here. Advantage Michigan State

Kevin Muma is the kickoff specialist for Michigan State, and he is pretty damn good. His 65.55 yards per kickoff is good for third in the Big Ten. He's also fifth in touchback percentage, and has yet to kick a ball out of bounds. So, yeah. Pretty good. Unfortunately for Sparty, the same can't be said about their kick coverage team. Michigan State is ninth in the Big Ten, giving up an average of 23.36 yards per return, and allowing one touchdown return this season.

Jordan Bernstine is right behind Michigan State's Nick Hill, as he sits at number six in the Big Ten, averaging 24.20 yards per kick return. He has yet to take one back to the house. However, if Michigan State continues to give up big returns, he may just do so this week. Advantage Iowa

Eric Guthrie's punting average keeps dropping, but, again, that wind last Saturday may not have helped him out a whole lot. He now sits at 41.7 yards per punt, which, if he qualified (75% of games played, 3.6 punt per game average), would be good enough for number four in the Big Ten. Guthrie has punted 29 times this season, and of those 29 punts, 11 (37.93%) have landed inside the 20, 11 have been fair caught, 3 (10.34%) have gone for 50+ yards (long of 59), 1 (3.45%) has gone for a touchback, and 0 have been blocked. Pair Mr. Guthrie with the second best punt coverage team in the Big Ten (5.25 yards per punt return), and this is a very strong unit.

Michigan State's punt return unit is no slouch either, however. Keshawn Martin is third in the Big Ten, averaging 8.57 yards per punt return this year, but with 0 touchdowns. Last year, though, Martin led the Big Ten with 14.25 yards per punt return and 1 touchdown that helped seal a victory over Wisconsin. I think Martin is a great punt returner, but most of Guthrie's punts don't even returned. I think Guthrie will do a good job of neutralizing Martin, who just isn't gaining as many yards via punt returns as he did last season. Advantage Iowa

Unlike Guthrie, Mike Sadler did qualify for College Football Stats' Top 10 in the Big ten for punting. However, it's not necessarily a good thing. Sadler sits at number six (number seven if you put Guthrie on that list), with 38.73 yards per punt, because he has had to punt a lot this year. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the Michigan State offense. Sadler has punted 40 times this season, and of those 40 punts, 14 (35%) have landed inside the 20 yard line, 12 (30%) have been fair caught, 2 (5%) have gone 50+ yards (long of 55), 4 (10%) have landed in the end zone for a touchback, and 1 (2.5%) have been blocked. However, just like on kickoffs, Sparty hasn't been very good at covering punts this season. They are allowing 10 yards per punt return, which is only better than Nebraska in the Big Ten. Though, they have not had one run back for a touchdown.

I would like to think that Micah Hyde could take advantage of that awful punt coverage team that Michigan State has, but I don't think so. He's only returned nine punts the whole season, and is averaging only 6.89 yards per return. That is good enough for ninth in the Big Ten. Not a strength for this Iowa team. Advantage Michigan State

Special Teams Advantage: Iowa

Tendencies

After 29 carries for Marcus Coker against Michigan, Iowa is now running the ball about 1% more than the national average. A big change from when they were throwing the ball about 3% more than average just three or four weeks ago. Michigan State, however, is throwing the ball about 1.5% more than average.

On defense, teams have tried to run the ball on Iowa and Michigan State about 2% more than average.

Inside the red zone, Iowa gives opposing teams a very heavy dose of Coker. Almost 75% of their play calls are to hand it to the big man. That has been good enough for them to score on 88.89% of their red zone trips, which is third in the Big Ten. When it comes to touchdowns, though, Iowa's 63.89% is good enough for only seventh in the Big Ten. Michigan State, meanwhile, takes a more balanced approach inside their opponent's 20. That approach, however, has only been good enough to score on 74.29% of their trips down in the red zone. That is worst in the Big Ten. Their 60% touchdown percentage, on the other hand, is good enough to move them up to ninth.

On defense, Iowa sees almost a 60/40 run/pass split. They've only let their opponent score on 70.73% of their trips to the red zone, which is good for second in the Big Ten. Also, their 53.66% opponent touchdown percentage is good enough for third in the Big Ten. As for Sparty, they are seeing a ground and pound strategy when their opponent's get inside the MSU 20. So far this season, they have allowed their opponents to come away with points on 83.33% of their red zone possessions, which is only eighth best in the Big Ten. Their 61.11% touchdown percentage is also eighth in the Big Ten.

As Iowa has become more run-heavy on the year, their distribution of yards gained has started to normalize to the national average. They are now only gaining about 2% more of their yards via the pass. Michigan State, however, is passing about 1% more than average, but but are gaining about 6% more yards through the air. How about that run game, eh?

On defense, Iowa has given up about the national average distribution in yards. Michigan State, however, is giving up about 1% more rushing yards than average.

With Marcus Coker getting 2 touchdowns against Michigan, and Vandenberg only throwing for 1, Iowa is climbing closer to the national average. However, they have still scored about 5% more of their touchdowns on pass plays. Michigan State, though, has scored 4% more than average through the air. Once again, the ground game is not very good.

On defense, Iowa has given up 11% more touchdowns through the air than average. While Michigan State isn't far off, giving up about 12% more through the air.

Opposing Players to Watch

QB #8 Kirk Cousins, 6'3" 205 lbs- Cousins doesn't have the strongest arm. Nor does he have the most nimble feet. But he is accurate, and can get the job done. He is completing 63.9% of his passes this season, and he is averaging 7.5 yards per pass attempt. (not sack-adjusted) That means, he may be able to do what Michigan and Denard were not able to do: move the ball down the field by completing those short to intermediate passes. It will be interesting to see if Iowa continues to turn up the heat on the quarterback by blitzing this week, because if they give Cousins time to throw, he could put just enough drives together to win this game.

RB #24 Le'Veon Bell, 6'2" 237 lbs- Michigan State has had their share of troubles running the ball this year, but Le'Veon Bell is not the reason why. He's averaging 5.18 yards per carry on the season, and 4.86 in conference play, which is still above average. He's a big back, in the mold of Penn State's Curtis Dukes, who Iowa had trouble stopping when Silas Redd wasn't running the ball all over the field on the Hawkeyes. Iowa has to keep him in check if they want to come away with a victory.

WR #3 B.J. Cunningham, 6'2" 215 lbs- Cunningham has quietly put up a nice season this year. The reason nobody talks about him a whole lot, is because Marvin McNutt and A.J. Jenkins seem to garner all the attention. However, don't sleep on Cunningham. He can stretch the field. His 16.22 yards per catch this season, is seventh best in the Big Ten, and isn't too far behind McNutt's 16.82. He's also seeing about 6 passes thrown his way per game, so Prater and Hyde may have their hands full come Saturday.

DT #99 Jerel Worthy, 6'3" 310 lbs- (Remember him? Yeah. I thought so.) Jerel Worthy is big human being. He may be 310 lbs, but he is an athletic 310 lbs, which means he's as much of a pass rusher, as he is a run stuffer. He is fourth on the team with 5.5 tackles for loss, and third on the team with 2.5 sacks. Considering Mike Martin had a big game for Michigan, expect to see the interior of Iowa's offensive line struggle to block Worthy in this one.

LB #28 Denicos Allen, 5'10" 220 lbs- Denicos Allen is an undersized linebacker, but he leads the team in sacks and tackles for loss. In fact, his 6 sacks are tied for second place in the Big Ten, while his 11 tackles for loss is good for seventh in the Big Ten. Michigan State loves to blitz, so Iowa better be ready to pick up Allen. Because he's coming, and he's probably coming often.

DE #2 William Gholston, 6'7" 280 lbs- You probably know Mr. Gholston for the excellent sportsmanship he showed during the Michigan game. However, outside of being an asshole, he is a very scary football player. The gigantic defensive end can rush the passer, as he has 3 sacks on the season, which is good for second on the team. However, he's also very good at stopping the run, as 7 of his 10 tackles for loss on the season have come on running plays. Luckily for Iowa, the tackles are the strength of this offensive line, so hopefully they can hold Gholston in check.

Others to Watch- RB Edwin Baker, WR Keshawn Martin, WR Keith Nichol, TE Brian Linthicum, TE Dion Sims, SS Isaiah Lewis (4 interceptions!), MLB Max Bullough.

Beverage of Choice- Santa's Private Reserve Ale by Rogue Ales

As of writing this, Des Moines, Iowa just received about two inches of snow overnight. The weather is turning colder, and the days are getting shorter. And when all of this starts to happen, I get one thing on my mind: Christmas.

Now, I know, I know. We haven't even gotten to Thanksgiving yet. (Which I am very much looking forward to, by the way.) I also know that this snow is going to melt pretty fast, considering it isn't that cold outside right now. That means there won't be anything on the ground by the time the game rolls around. But, work with me damn it! I like Christmas!

Now, I'm one of those suckers who likes the fact that stores put out their Christmas decorations the day after Halloween. So, with that being said, I'm going to join in on the early celebration of Christmas this Saturday, by drinking a Santa's Private Reserve Ale by Rogue Ales. I'm sure most of you have heard of Rogue. They make an endless variety of beers, and almost every single one of them is very good. And Santa's Private Reserve Ale is no different. At 65 IBU's, it is pretty hoppy, but not too hoppy for those who don't like their beer to punch them in the face with hops. (::cough:: Mike ::cough::) However, it balances the hops out with a nice malty flavor, and it has an extra spice to it, which I'm not sure what it is, but it makes it very tasty. Plus, it pours a nice dark amber color, so it fits the season very well.

I just tried this beer for the first time this past Sunday, and I liked it so much, I'm going to drink it again this Saturday. So, if you're like me, and you LOVE that Christmas feeling, grab a Santa's Private Reserve Ale and enjoy some college football. You won't regret it. I mean, look at that label. Isn't that just the definition of awesome? Yeah. I thought so.

Prediction- Iowa 20, Michigan State 17

I've already said this before, but I'm to the point now, where I think I may just pick the home team in every Big Ten game from here on out. I picked against Iowa last weekend, and they held a much better offense than Michigan State's, to way under their season averages in basically every category. Michigan State does have a better defense, but I think Iowa has an offense that can put up enough points to squeak by with a close victory. With Coker running fools over, Iowa's offense now has more weapons than just the over the top game to McNutt. Michigan State, on the other hand, is more one-dimensional, as their running game has not been very good this season.

In the end, this should be a low scoring affair, but I think Iowa's offense can pull it out. I think this game comes down to the end, and it will probably be another nerve-wracking finish. Let's just hope that the Hawkeyes come out on top.

All stats in this piece came from College Football Statistics, the NCAA's official website, and my own personal spreadsheet.