Behind the Numbers: Week 10 Iowa vs Michigan

The opposite of what we will see Saturday. (Rob Johnson/The Daily Iowan)

Well, it's now been five days since the clusterfuck in Minneapolis took place, and as much as that game still hurts, it's probably time to move on. Of course, moving on, means leaving behind the "cupcakes", and moving on to the "juggernaut" portion of Iowa's schedule. And the first opponent from the "juggernaut" category, just so happens to be the Wolverines of Michigan.

Of course, Michigan is the toughest opponent the Hawkeyes have faced to date. My rankings have Michigan as the #13 team in the nation, and the #2 team in the Big Ten. However, if you still don't really trust my numbers, then Football Outsiders' F/+ has Michigan at #11 in the nation, and #3 in the Big Ten. As you can see, there seems to be a consensus. They are pretty good. As for Iowa, my rankings have the Hawkeyes as the #58 team in the nation and the #8 team in the Big Ten, while F/+ has the Hawkeyes at #46 in the nation and #8 in the Big Ten. So, there is a bit of disparity between these two teams. Most of which, comes from Iowa's defense being so bad this year.

That being said, even with Michigan being the favorite (and the better team), Iowa could still win this game, and I don't think many people would be all that surprised. The Hawkeyes have shown the ability to keep games close (for better or worse), and Iowa's offense has shown the ability to put points on the board this season. And if they want any chance to win this game, that's what they are going to need to do. Because there is no way this defense is stopping Denard and Co.

One final note, before we get into the analysis. This week, you will notice a number in parenthesis after both teams' offense and defense. That is simply the national ranking for each teams' offense and defense. For instance, right below this, you can see that, according to my rankings, Iowa's offense is the #39 offense in the nation through nine weeks. Pretty easy, but pretty neat.

Anyway, to the charts!

Iowa Offense (#39) vs Michigan Defense (#20)

(What is this chart?)

For Iowa to have any chance in this game, they are going to have to win a shootout. Michigan's defense is considered above average by my rankings, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities that Iowa could put up some points on them. The Wolverines are only 5% above the national average in opponent quarterback rating, and are 7% better average in opponent yards per pass play (5.77 vs FBS average of 6.22). However, when you break down their opponent's, they seem to struggle against teams that can actually pass the ball. They allowed a quarterback rating of 152.20 and 8.1 yards per pass attempt (not adjusted for sacks) vs Notre Dame. They allowed a 128.46 quarterback rating and 7.4 yards per pass attempt against Northwestern. And, hell, they just gave up a 149.05 quarterback rating and 8.2 yards per pass attempt to a Purdue team that can't pass the ball last weekend! (Maybe that happened in garbage time, though. I don't know as I didn't watch the game.) As Hawkeye fans know, Vandenberg plays better at home, and as you will see below, he should have the help of a decent run game in this one. Iowa will have Keenan Davis back this week to keep the defense from shading to Marvin's side of the field too much. However, Keenan does still have that ankle problem, so who knows how  healthy he is. However, I do feel with the help of a good ground game, that Iowa should be able to throw the ball in this one. Advantage Iowa

That 8% above average rushing defense rating on the Michigan chart above, is largely due to the fact that Michigan opponent's have only found the end zone via the ground, on 2.35% of their carries. That is 46% better than the national average of 4.34%. When it comes to yards per carry (adjusted for sacks), Michigan is allowing 5.13 yards per carry. That is 8% worse than the FBS average of 4.73, and it is also not too terribly far from where Minnesota was before Coker (Minnesota Pre-Coker: 5.27, Minnesota Post-Coker: 5.57). For the season, the Coker Express is now up over 5 yards per carry, sitting at 5.32. Granted, he's pulled his average up by running over the weakest rushing defenses in the Big Ten. However, he's not looking tentative anymore, he's hitting the holes harder than he was earlier in the season, and most importantly, he's running people the fuck over. With Michigan giving up over 5 yards per carry, and Coker trucking people left and right, I'm going with the Hawkeyes in this match up. And, oh yeah. Mik'ail McCall should play this weekend! Advantage Iowa

My ratings heavily weight scoring, because, after all, teams that score the most points, and give up the least amount of points are usually going to be the best teams. Michigan's defense has been great at keeping opponents off the board this season. Their 0.23 defensive points per play allowed is 35% better than the national average, while their 14.43 defensive points per game allowed is 41% better than average. However, in Michigan's two road games this season they have surrendered 28 to Michigan State and 24 to Northwestern. Iowa, meanwhile, has played an easy schedule, of course, but they have put up at least 20 points in every game, except Penn State. Certainly, Michigan's defense is not as good as Penn State's, and the Penn State game was on the road. (And we all know how good the Hawkeyes and the coaching staff are on the road!) For the season, Iowa is having no trouble scoring, as they are averaging 30.88 offensive points per game (14% above average). The Iowa offense has also been capable of busting out some big plays this season, as their 0.48 offensive points per play is 24% better than the national average of 0.39. This looks like it could be a good match up. Advantage Push

Ah. Turnovers. This is where it get's interesting. Michigan is a defense that has shown an alright pass and rush defense, but it seems to be the turnovers that are keeping points off the board. Michigan is causing a turnover on 3.89% of their opponent's plays. That is 49% better than the national average of 2.61%. What makes it even more crazy, is the fact that it's mostly fumbles! As a team, Michigan has forced 20 turnovers already this season, and 14 of them (!) have been fumbles. They have caused 16 fumbles, and have recovered 87.5% of them. That is some serious fumbles luck. I don't doubt that they have a real knack for stripping the ball, but recovering a fumble is pretty much a 50/50 scenario, and they have recovered 87.5% of them. That has to be unsustainable, right? Of course. However, that doesn't mean it will regress in this game, or even this season, for that matter. All I know, is Iowa better cover up the ball on Saturday, because the forced fumbles do look like a skill for this Michigan team. Coker had some fumble issues early on in the season, but he's been much better lately. Vandenberg has been good about not throwing interceptions this season, though, they do need to block that corner blitz much better than they have this season. Either way, Iowa's 30% above average turnover rating should match up nicely against Michigan's 49% above average forced turnover rating. Advantage Push

When it comes to line play, Michigan's defensive line is not real great. They are not on the same level of sucktitude as Iowa's defensive line, but they are nothing special. They are 3% worse than the national average in sacks per opponent pass play, and 8% worse than average in stopping the opposing running back in the back field. Iowa shouldn't have too much of a problem opening holes for Coker against this unit, as the Iowa offensive line has only allowed a negative run on 4.56% of their carries this season. That is 54%  above average, by the way. As for pass protection, Minnesota was one of the worst, if not the worst, teams in the nation at getting to the quarterback. So, of course, they sacked Vandenberg three times. Michigan's defense may be 3% worse than average at getting to the quarterback, but Iowa is now 19% below average at giving up sacks. So, it looks like Iowa has the run blocking advantage, while Michigan has the pass rush advantage. Advantage Push

Overall Advantage: Iowa Offense

Michigan Offense (#34) vs Iowa Defense (#84)

Michigan's passing rating is only 5% above average, but that includes Devin Gardner's quarterback rating, which pulls down Denard's 141.19. We all know that Denard is not a great passer. However, he does have an above average quarterback rating. How's that, you ask? Well, it certainly isn't because of his completion percentage or his interception percentage. So, what is it? Well, it's because he gets a lot of yards per pass attempt. Without adjusting for sacks, he is averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt. Even when you take sacks into account (using both Denard and Devin Gardner's stats), Michigan is still averaging 8.15 yards per pass play. That is 26% better than the FBS average of 6.47, and means when the Wolverine offense does complete a pass, they have the tendency to go for pretty good chunks of yards. That is scary for an Iowa defense that allowed a couple big pass plays from MarQueis Gray, and made the recently benched, Steele Jantz, look like a Heisman candidate. When you look at their stats, Iowa is allowing 6.68 yards per pass play (7% worse than average), a 66.41% completion percentage (12% worse than average), a touchdown on 4.73% of opponent pass attempts (6% worse than average), and intercepting a pass on 2.18% opponent pass attempts (25% worse than average). Overall, that comes out to a quarterback rating allowed of 139.41, which is 9% below average. And that is playing a very easy schedule too. With Iowa playing a quarterback that breaks contain with ease, this probably won't be pretty, come Saturday. Advantage Michigan

If passing won't be pretty, watching Iowa try to stop Michigan's rushing attack will most likely be downright grotesque. The Wolverines are averaging a rushing touchdown on 6.38% of their carries this season (33% above average), while picking up a sack-adjusted 6.23 yards per carry (26% above average) on the ground to boot. Now, Iowa has only allowed a sack-adjusted 4.25 yards per carry this season, which is actually 10% above average. However, this will be the best rushing attack Iowa has seen all year, and Iowa wasn't looking real great stopping Minnesota's run game in the fourth quarter last weekend, were they? Iowa has been able to keep their opponents out of the end zone on the ground this season, but I have a feeling Michigan will have at least 2 rushing touchdowns on Saturday. Advantage Michigan

I know it is stating the obvious, but Michigan's defense is a very high-powered offense. They are averaging 0.50 points per play this season, which is 30% better than the national average. As for points per game, their offense is putting up 33.71 offensive points per game, which is 25% better than average. I know it seems like Iowa is giving up boatloads of points this season, and they definitely are. However, their defensive points per game allowed, currently sits at 23.13, which is actually 5% above average. Even though they are pretty mediocre in points per game allowed, they are still a Norm Parker defense, and that means they are still bending quite a bit before they break. I say that because their defensive points per play allowed is quite a bit better than their points per game allowed. Their defensive points per play allowed of 0.31 is 13% better than the national average. I don't see that mattering a whole lot this weekend. Denard may have to work a little harder than usual to find the end zone, but he will still find it. And he will probably find it a lot. Advantage Michigan

If their is one really big weakness on this Michigan offense, it's turnovers. I mean, Denard has thrown 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions this season. And, Jesus Christ, they have also had some fumble luck on offense too! They've fumbled 9 times in 2011, and only lost 2! Even with that little bit of fumbles luck, Michigan is still giving the ball up 20% more than the average FBS team. I would give Iowa the advantage, but they couldn't force a turnover if it came up and kicked them in the balls this season. They are 23% worse than the national average at forcing turnovers. Both teams suck here. Advantage Push

Oddly enough, Michigan's offense has actually given up 7% more negative plays than the national average. That's odd because they had a really good offensive line last season. So far this season, they have been 2% below average in sacks allowed per pass attempt, and 1% below average in tackles for loss per carry. Not like that matters, though, Iowa's defensive front is 21% worse than average at getting to the quarterback, and an amazingly horrible 33% below average at stopping opposing running backs behind the line of scrimmage. Michigan will be just fine here. Advantage Michigan

Overall Advantage: Michigan Offense

Special Teams

Thanks to missing two kicks against Minnesota, Mike Meyer is now 12/16 (75%) on the season, and in fifth place in the Big Ten in field goal percentage. He is now 8/9 inside 40 yards, 3-5 from 40-49 yards, and 1-2 from 50+ yards. His long is 50 yards, and he has had none blocked.

Michigan has had some kicking issues over the past couple years, and while it looks to be getting better, it's still not very good. The Wolverine kicker, Brendan Gibbons, is 6/8 (75%) on the season, and also tied for fifth place in the conference with Meyer. However, Meyer does have a little more range at this point in his career. He's 6-7 within 40 yards, and has missed his only attempt from longer than 39, which was exactly 40 yards.  His longest make of the season was from 38 yards, and he has had one kick blocked. Advantage Iowa

Mike Meyer is sixth in the Big Ten, with an average kickoff of 63.67 yards. However, his 1 touchback is easily the lowest total in the conference, while his 3 kicks out of bounds is also near the worst in the conference. As for covering kicks, Iowa ranks sixth in the Big Ten, giving up 20.93 yards per kick. However, they have yet to give up a return for a touchdown this season.

Martavious Odoms and Vincent Smith return most of Michigan's kicks. Neither of them have done a whole lot this season. Odoms has done the best, averaging 22.29 yards per return. But, as a team, Michigan is tenth in the Big Ten, averaging 19.72 yards per return. Advantage Push

Matt Wile is the kickoff specialist for this Michigan team, and he is currently ninth in the Big Ten, averaging 62.56 yards per kick. He has also kicked two balls out of bounds this season, but does have 9 touchbacks. The Wolverine coverage team, though, is a little worse than Iowa's, allowing 21.18 yards per return. Just like Iowa, however, they haven't had a kick taken to the house on them this season, either.

Jordan Bernstine is seventh in the Big Ten, averaging 24.26 yards per return this season, and has come close to busting loose a couple of times. I could see Bernstine having a nice day against this coverage team, but I could also see Wile neutralizing any advantage Bernstine had, with his ability to get touchbacks. Advantage Push

Eric Guthrie hasn't gotten a lot of action lately, as he has only had to punt twice in the past couple of games. His average has dropped slightly over those games from about 43, down to 42 yards per punt, but he still has some pretty impressive numbers. On his 24 punts this season, 10 of them have been fair caught (41.67%), 9 have landed inside the 20 (37.5%), only 1 has gone in the end zone for a touchback (4.17%), 0 have been blocked, and 3 have gone for 50+ yards (12.5%), including a long of 59 yards. Couple Guthrie with the second best punt coverage team in the Big Ten (4.17 yards per return allowed), and this is a pretty good unit.

As for Michigan, their main punt returner Jeremy Gallon is averaging 9 yards per punt return this year, which is actually pretty good. However, he has yet to run one back, and Guthrie doesn't allow very many returns on his punts, so I'm going Iowa on this one. Advantage Iowa

Matt Wile was doing the punting at the beginning of the season, but Will Hagerup has since taken over. Hagerup has punted 12 times this year and is averaging 34.8 yards per punt. On his 12 punts, 1 has been fair caught (8.33%), 1 has gone for a touchback, 4 have landed inside the 20 (33.3%), 0 have been blocked, and 0 have gone for 50+ yards. His long on the year currently is 49 yards. Looking at their punt coverage team, Michigan is ninth in the Big Ten, allowing 8.71 yards per return. Though, they have not allowed a punt return touchdown.

As for Iowa's punt return team… Yeah. Don't worry about them. Micah Hyde is scary when he tries to catch a punt, and honestly, I'm happier when he's running away from the ball. Advantage Michigan

Special Teams Advantage: Iowa

Tendencies

Iowa started off the season passing more than they were running the ball. However, after playing the three most worst defenses in the Big Ten, they are now running the ball 3% more than they are passing it. And they are now right around the FBS average when it comes to play calling. Michigan, on the other hand, loves to run the ball. They are running the ball about 12% more than the national average.

Looking at the other side of the ball, Iowa's opponents have chosen to attack this defense with the run game about 4% more than average. As for Michigan, they've seen the pass about 2% more. That could be because Michigan's offense puts points on the board, and other teams are put in more pass heavy situations. Though, that's just a guess.

Inside their opponent's 20 yard line, both teams go to the run almost 75% of the time. After last week's miserable effort in the red zone, Iowa is now fourth in the Big Ten, with a red zone scoring percentage of 87.88%. Their 60.61% touchdown percentage is also now eighth in the Big Ten. Michigan sits at third in the Big Ten in red zone scoring percentage, with 88.57%. However, they are second in touchdown percentage, reaching the end zone 71.43% of the time.

On defense, Iowa has seen teams run the ball about 63% of the time, while Michigan has seen teams run the ball on only about 54% of their plays. Iowa sits in second place in the Big Ten, with a 72.22% opponent red zone scoring percentage, while their 55.56% opponent touchdown percentage, is is good enough for fourth in the Big Ten. Michigan sits in first place in red zone scoring percentage (60%) and touchdown percentage (48%).

When it comes to yards, Iowa is still picking up more of their yardage through the air than the average FBS team. However, that margin is shrinking, as it is now only 2% more than average. Considering Michigan runs the ball 12% more than average, it's not really surprising that they are getting about 13% more of their yards via the ground.

As for Iowa, they have seen opponents run on them about 4% more than average, but are almost exactly average when it comes to the distribution of yards they give up via the pass vs via the ground. Which means they have been pretty good against the run, and not so good against the pass this year. Michigan, though, has seen 2% more passes this season, but is giving up 2% more yards than average on the ground. That may have something to do with them allowing 5.13 sack-adjusted yards per carry this year…

Iowa is still finding the end zone via the pass about 7% more than the average team. That probably has something to do with the fact that Coker gets basically all his rushing touchdowns in goal line situations, while Iowa has a nice deep threat weapon in Marvin McNutt. Hell, Keenan Davis is pretty good at stretching the field too, when healthy. Michigan, meanwhile, runs the ball about 12% more than average, and picks up touchdowns on the ground about 11% more than average.

Defensively, we see Iowa struggling with the pass, once again. They are run on 4% more of the time, but are giving up an average amount of yards on the ground, while giving up 7% more touchdowns via the air. Michigan is also giving up most of their touchdowns through the air this season. It's kind of odd that they are giving up 12% more of their touchdowns through the air, but are giving up 2% more yards than average on the ground. Hmm…

Opposing Players to Watch

• QB #16 Denard Robinson, 6'0" 195 lbs- Putting Denard under the Opposing Players to Watch category is pretty much the most "duh" thing ever. If you don't know why you should be paying attention to Robinson, then why the hell are you reading this in the first place?
• Every Single Running Back on the Roster- Seriously, they have four running backs who are averaging at least 6 yards per carry. I really didn't want to list each one individually, I'm putting them all together. Fitzgerald Toussaint (6.13 yards per carry) and Vincent Smith (6.49 yards per carry) get most of the carries, but Michael Shaw also gets a few carries a game, and isn't exactly chopped liver (7.50 yards per carry). If Michigan just flat out blows Iowa away, we could also see freshman running back Thomas Rawls (6.08 yards per carry) in the game too. Fun!
• All of their Receivers Too- I'm grouping the receivers too! Seriously. Junior Hemingway absolutely scares me when I think about Prater and Miller possibly having to cover this guy. Hemingway is averaging an insane 22.50 yards per catch this season. The other two main receivers are Jeremy Gallon and Roy Roundtree. Both guys have two touchdown catches this year, while Roundtree has been a slightly better deep threat (18.14 yards per catch vs 16.70 yards per catch for Gallon). You just know Iowa is going to be so worried about the run, that they are going to give up at least one big pass play over the top. It's inevitable. Just accept it.
• FS #30 Thomas Gordon, 5'11" 208 lbs- Gordon is second on the team in tackles (52) and solo tackles (32). He is also one of the six guys on the team who has 1 interception on the year, and he leads the team with 2 forced fumbles. He should be flying around the field on Saturday.
• DE #88 Craig Roh, 6'5" 269 lbs- Roh leads the team with 7 tackles for loss, and is tied for the team lead in sacks, with 3. Roh will primarily be lined up against Zusevics, which should make for a nice little match up.
• SS #32 Jordan Kovacs, 6'0" 197 lbs- Kovacs is the starting strong safety, who is tied with Roh for the team lead in sacks, with 3. Two of them did come against Western Michigan, though. However, that does show Michigan has no problem sending their defensive backs on blitzes. And I think we all know how Iowa does against those…
• CB #12 J.T. Floyd, 6'0" 183 lbs- Floyd is Michigan's best cornerback. He has 1 interception on the year, and leads the team in pass break ups, with 5. And, of course, like every other Michigan player, he has 1 forced fumble.
• Others To Watch- OLB Kenny Demens, OLB Jake Ryan, DT Ryan Van Bergen, DT Mike Martin.

Beverage of Choice- Sierra Nevada and Dog Fish Head Brewery's Life and Limb

(Nothing special this week, folks. I do apologize.)

This is a big game for the Hawkeyes, and it's either going to be a very important win or a very important loss. Either way, I'm going to have a good beer, no matter what. If Iowa wins, it's a celebratory ale. If Iowa loses, it's 10% alcohol and comes in a bomber. Needless to say, if Iowa comes out on the wrong side of the scoreboard, this beer will help me forget Denard Robinson ever stepped foot in Kinnick on Saturday.

Preciction- Iowa 24, Michigan 31

Yep. First time all year I have picked against Iowa. But, make no mistake, they could win this game. Why? Because I don't trust any Big Ten team on the road this year. The Big Ten is not very good as a conference this season, and after watching Wisconsin lose two games in a row on the road, and Michigan State go to Lincoln and get bitch slapped, nothing surprises me anymore. It also helps that Iowa almost always plays in close games, so they should be in this game until the end. However, Iowa's defense is just not very good, and Michigan's offense is the exact opposite.

I do think Marcus Coker will be able to run for 100 yards in this game, and hopefully that will open up the play action passing game for Vandenberg. I think the most important key, though, is limiting turnovers. Michigan thrives on turnovers to keep opponents from scoring, and if Iowa can execute when they get inside the red zone, they have a chance to win this game. However, Iowa has yet to really put together a full game this season, and I think there will be enough breakdowns in the defense, and enough stalled drives on offense, that they come up short in this one. Though, of course, I hope I'm wrong. I mean, Minnesota was supposed to lose by 15, right? /punches self in face

All stats in this piece came from College Football Statistics, the NCAA's official website, and my own personal spreadsheet.