Behind the Numbers… Basketball Edition: Iowa vs Chicago State

ED Note: Since the beginning of basketball season and the end of football season overlap, it makes it hard to cover both sports as in depth as I would like to. What that means, is that until about the end of November, "Behind the Numbers… Basketball Edition" will be shorter than normal. It will mostly be a couple of charts with some quick commentary. Not that it really matters, because who really cares about previewing a state school named after a city? I mean, Chicago State? Really? Really?

Fran is so excited for the return of college basketball, that all he wants to do is "raise the roof!" (H/T Hawk Central)

Guess what? It's officially basketball season today! Yay! That means tonight the Iowa men's basketball team will face off against national powerhouse Chicago State. Ok. Maybe they're not a national powerhouse. Or even a regional powerhouse, really. But, hey. They are located in a big city. So they've got that going for them…

Anyway, Chicago State is bad. Like really, really bad, you guys. KenPom had the Cougars ranked as the 344th best team in the nation last year out of 345 teams. Even better, KenPom's preseason projections have them ranked at #345. And looking over their roster, it's hard to know exactly what to expect out of them, considering they only have three players returning this year. Yes. You read that right. Three returning guys. (I have no idea how that works either.) And, even better, none of them were normal starters last year. But, one thing you can expect out of them, is that they are going to be bad. Really, really bad.

Since there are no stats accumulated for the 2011-2012 season yet, below you will find charts with last year's numbers. Of course, that means these charts are totally useless. Well, not totally useless. They are pretty to look at. And that is useful, isn't it?

Anyway, to the charts!

Iowa Offense vs Chicago State Defense

ED Note: These charts show each teams' Four Factors. If you don't know what means, read the link. Shooting is measured by effective field goal percentage, turnovers are measured by turnover percentage, offensive rebounding is measured by offensive rebounding percentage, and free throw rate measures how often a team gets to the foul line. Just like with football: 100 = NCAA average, 90 = 10% below average, and 110 = 10% above average.

Last season, the only aspect of the Four Factors that Iowa was above average in was offensive rebounding. A lot of that had to do with Melsahn Basabe's 13% offensive rebounding percentage, who, of course, returns this season. However, a lot of it also had to do with Jarryd Cole's 10.4% offensive rebounding percentage. And, as you all know, Cole has long since graduated. It will be interesting to see if Iowa's offensive rebounding takes a hit this season, but it definitely won't in this game.

As for Chicago State's defense, they were absolutely horrible last season. This year, with an almost entirely different roster, you can probably expect them to be pretty damn awful again.

Advantage: Iowa Offense

Chicago State Offense vs Iowa Defense

Offensively, Chicago State was slightly better than their defense, but they were still pretty damn terrible. And, once again, all of their main scorers from last year are gone!

As for the Hawkeyes, the defensive side of the ball was a little bit more of a strength than the offensive side of the ball was. Iowa was very good at keeping their opponent off the free throw line, and they were very good at forcing turnovers. They were also right  around average at keeping their opponents from crashing the offensive boards. The Jarryd Cole caveat still applies, but so does the "it doesn't matter it's Chicago State" caveat.

Advantage: Iowa Defense

Opposing Players to Watch

• BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Prediction- Iowa 82, Chicago State 54

Gatens will go for at least 15 points. I think May and Cartwright also go for double digits. Basabe could (and probably should) have a double-double in this game, but it'll be interesting to see how he plays after his disappointing showing in the exhibition. Overall, though, Iowa rolls, and it shouldn't even be close. If it is close, well… then I guess we will all Get Mad Again, won't we?

All stats from this piece are from KenPom, StatSheet, and my own personal spreadsheet.