More of this, please! (Brian Ray/ SourceMedia Group News)
With the first official game less than two weeks away it’s about time for the High Porch Picnic to start talking about Iowa basketball. We’ll start with a positional breakdown of returning Hawkeye and follow it up with a general basketball preview and what we can expect from Iowa throughout the year. Next up is Shooting Guard. Note that the lists are ordered by projected starters first.
The Polarizer- Matt Gatens
Height/Weight: 6'5"/212 lbs
Position: Starting Shooting Guard
Year: Senior
No. I am not calling Matt Gatens an optical filter. I'm calling him "The Polarizer" based on how people either really love him or constantly complain that he's not knocking down 40% of his three point attempts like he did his freshman year. So pardon me, but the Matt Gatens topic gets on my nerves a bit. I understand that some people thought he was going to be the greatest player to ever don a Hawkeye basketball jersey after his freshman year. Hell, I was young and impressionable, and thought the same thing. But, honestly people, his freshman year was driven by his 40% 3pt FG%. And if you look closely, regression kicked in as the season went on. For the hell of it, let's take a look at his freshman and junior seasons, shall we?
You see that? That is called regression, my friends. During his freshman season, he started out ridiculously hot, and then cooled off as the season dwindled down. Last season, he was bothered by an injured thumb, which totally messed up his shooting in November. In both of those seasons, Gatens' 3pt FG% moved closer and closer to his true talent level. During his freshman campaign, his hot start kept it from falling any lower, and last season, his thumb injury held it back from going any higher. He's a career 35% three point shooter, and that is what we should expect going forward. He could certainly improve on that in his senior season, but honestly, let's all just adjust our expectations from 40% down to 35%. We'll all be a lot more happy if we do that. I promise.
Moving away from three point shooting, Gatens had a very good junior season. It was a rebound year for him, after he struggled in Lickliter's final season as head coach. People may not think that he improved his scoring from his sophomore season to his junior season. I mean, he did only go from 12.25 points per game to 12.62 points per game, after all. The problem is, he played about 200 less minutes in 2010-2011, than he did in 2009-2010. If you look at his points per minute, Gatens went from 0.32 as a freshman, to 0.33 as a sophomore, to 0.38 as a junior. If he would have played the same amount of minutes last season, that he did in his sophomore season, Gatens' 0.38 points per minute would have come out to 13.8 points per game.
I guess my point is, CALM THE FUCK DOWN PEOPLE. Gatens may never be an All-American, but he's still a very good player. Hopefully, his senior season will be less injury-filled, and having a penetrating point guard and a legit threat in the post, will give Gatens more room to knock down some baskets from long range. Because lord knows this team needs a shooter.
The Comeback- Eric May
Height/Weight: 6'5"/217 lbs
Position: Backup Shooting Guard/Small Forward
Year: Junior
This is assuming that Devyn Marble wins the starting small forward job, of course. I personally think May makes more sense at the three (and McCabe at the four). But, honestly, he's a wing player. Him, Gatens, Marble, White, Oglesby, and McCabe are diverse enough that they can all play multiple positions. (See last night's exhibition game for evidence) We can quibble about positions all we want, but really, who cares?
Anyway, it's not so much his position we are worried about this season. It's whether or not he can make a comeback. To say last season was a sophomore slump for Eric May, is like say saying Auschwitz was a county jail. Ok. That's not a fair comparison at all, but my point still stands; It's a gigantic understatement. May started off being Iowa's best player in November, averaging almost 14 points a game, with a 60.42% eFG% (of course, that was going to regress), and making 60% of his three point field goal attempts. However, May was in for a disappointing rest of the season, as he basically declined in every single month after November. He finished the season averaging 7.80 points per game, shooting a 48.56% eFG%, and knocking down 39.39% of his three points attempts. Now, the shooting line actually looks pretty good for May. But a lot of that was propped up by his very hot November, and still pretty good December. In Big Ten play, though, he averaged 5.56 points per game, shooting a 44.02% eFG%, and hit 33.33% of his three point attempts. Want a graphical look at his season? No? Too fucking bad:
May saw both his minutes and points decline as the season went on. Was he still shooting and scoring as much, but getting less playing time? Or was he looking more and more lost in the offense, and doing less and less with the ball? Well, here's another chart:
Breaking it down into per minute totals, we can see how much he was doing with the time he got on the court. What do we see? Well, we see he was definitely scoring less relative to the time that he was on the court as the season went on. But we also see that it wasn't just bad luck, either. In other words, it wasn't like May was shooting the same amount, but just missing more baskets, and that's why his scoring declined. Instead, he was shooting the ball less too. Basically, in November, before Basabe and Cartwright broke out, and while Gatens was still injured, May was the main man on offense. However, as the season went on, and those other guys broke out, May faded further and further into the background. And that's why this season is so big for him. Iowa could really use that fourth scorer on offense.
It's important to note that I'm not saying Iowa needs May to be their primary scorer. They have Gatens, Basabe, and Cartwright, who are all capable of getting their points. However, Iowa needs him to be more involved in the offense. Here is what I said in my season review for Eric May at my old blog:
Since Iowa has Basabe, Cartwright, and Gatens returning next year, May doesn't have to be a dynamic scorer. But, he does need to put up better than the 0.25 points per minute he averaged from December through March this season. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.33 to 0.35 would be just peachy for a fourth scorer.
Iowa doesn't need 13 points per game from him. If they can get 8 points per game or so from him (especially, in Big Ten play, where he was non-existent last season), while playing tough defense, pulling down some rebounds, and getting some steals, McCaffery and Co. will take that. It would also be nice if May could also cut his turnover rate down and make more than 60% of his free throws. But now I'm being greedy.
Just come back to us, Eric. That's all we're asking. Be that energy guy who can get Carver rocking with one of your thunderous dunks. Because, seriously, I really don't want to see you slide even farther down the depth chart this season.
The Sharpshooter- Josh Oglesby
Height/Weight: 6'5"/185 lbs
Position: Reserve Shooting Guard/Reserve Small Forward
Year: Freshman
Oglesby was recruited out of high school because of his shooting abilities. In fact, Minnesota fans wanted him to be the eventual replacement for Blake Hoffarber. Hoffarber was a career 40% three point shooter. I don't know about the rest of you, but YES PLEASE. Outside of his shooting abilities, Oglesby is said to have a very high basketball IQ, and is supposed to be a very good passer. He will get some playing time this season, but, barring injury, not a whole lot. With Gatens, Marble, and May on the roster, playing time at the wing spot is pretty limited. And that isn't even counting Aaron White or possibly Zach McCabe spending a little bit of time at the three position. Most likely, Oglesby will be expected to come off the bench and knock down a three pointer or two, and then be asked to take a seat while the upperclassmen do the rest. It's nothing against Josh, it's just unless you're a point guard or center, there isn't a whole lot of playing time to go around right now.
The Cougar Slayer- Branden Stubbs
Height/Weight: 6'2"/170 lbs
Position: Fourth String Shooting Guard/NON-CONCUSSED EMERGENCY POINT GUARD???
Year: Sophomore
What did you say? You don't remember who Branden Stubbs is? Well, I can guarantee you the Southern Illinois-Edwardsville Cougars do. They remember him dropping 12 points on them in 9 minutes last season. That's right, in 9 minutes, Branden Stubbs went 2-2 from three point range, 1-1 from two point range, and 4-4 from the free throw line. Yes. I can guaran-damn-tee you that the Cougars are glad they aren't on Iowa's schedule this year, and instead, Campbell College will feel Branden's Stubby wrath. Be afraid, Camels. Be very, very afraid.
The Future Cougar Slayer?- Kyle Denning
Height/Weight: 6'2"/175 lbs
Position: Fifth String Shooting Guard/Water Boy?
Year: Freshman
Kyle Denning is listed at the same height and weight that I am listed at. I am a lanky string bean. If Kyle Denning gets meaningful playing time this year, it just means this team is so bad that Fran has given up and is just fucking around for entertainment purposes only.
Water boy is a crucial position, I will have you know.